A Statistical Analysis of Model Simulated Global Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices

07/27/2011 - 10:00am

Rachel Fahrenholtz, Iowa State University

The nature of extreme temperature and precipitation events is of critical interest for potential impacts to nature and human systems. In this study, four indices from a climate model ensemble, each run simulated with different initial conditions, were analyzed across the globe. Two temperature and two precipitation indices were studied. The primary investigation is to assess the number of ensemble members required to declare a specified significant change in each index. Overall, more ensemble members seem to be necessary for precipitation indices than temperature indices. Further analysis in the extreme index trends will also be discussed.