Agenda

Monday, April 25, 2016

7:50

CU bus pickup from Millennium

8:10 – 8:45

Arrival, registration, continental breakfast

8:45 – 9:00

Welcoming remarks by Al Kellie, CISL Director

9:00 – 10:30

Univariate Extreme Value Theory (Doug Nychka)

  • 9:00-9:30: Ana Ferreira, IST-UL, CEMAT and CEAUL, Portugal : Comparisons on Block Maxima and POT methods; PWM estimators
  • 9:30-10:00: Julie Carreau, Hydrosciences Montpellier: Characterization of homogeneous regions for regional peaks-over-threshold modeling of heavy precipitation
  • 10:00-10:30: Rick Katz, NCAR: Penultimate Approximations for Weather and Climate Extremes

10:30 – 11:00

Break, coffee

11:00 – 12:00

Univariate Extreme Value Theory Cont. (Julie Carreau)

  • 11:00-11:30: Dorit Hammerling, NCAR: Climate Data Compression: a multi-disciplinary approach
  • 11:30-12:00: Doug Nychka, NCAR: Extremes in regional climate: What to do with 8,000 histograms?

12:00 – 1:30

Lunch in the ML Café, on your own, cash only

1:30 – 2:30

Assessing Climate and Weather Models (Dorit Hammerling)

  • 1:30-2:00: Dan Cooley, Colorado State University: Assessing Regional Climate Models’ Ability to Produce Extreme Precipitation
  • 2:00-2:30: Andrea Toreti, European Commission: Precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean region and associated upper-level synoptic-scale atmospheric structures

2:30 – 3:00

Break, coffee

3:00 – 4:30

Assessing Climate and Weather Models Cont. (Dan Cooley)

  • 3:00-3:30: Maxime Taillardat, Météo, France: Non-parametric postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for extreme and rare events: a focus on daily rainfall using weighted scoring rules for verification
  • 3:30-4:00: Whitney Huang, Purdue University: Estimating changes in temperature extremes from millennial scale climate simulations using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions

 

4:30 – 6:30

Reception, ML Café

6:45

CU bus pickup to Millennium

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

7:50

CU bus pick up from Millennium

8:10 – 8:30

Arrival, continental breakfast

8:30 – 9:30

Attribution and Causality (Andrea Toreti)

  • 8:30-9:00: Alexis Hannart, CNRS: Specific and generic attribution of climate extreme events
  • 9:00-9:30: Chris Paciorek, University of California, Berkley: Some considerations and methods for uncertainty quantification for event attribution

9:30 – 10:00

Break, coffee

10:00 – 11:00

Attribution and Causality Cont. (Chris Paciorek)

  • 10:00-10:30: Imme Ebert-Uphoff, Colorado State University: Casual discovery for geoscience 101
  • 10:30-11:00: Alberto Carrassi (presenter Alexis Hannart), CNRS: Estimating model evidence using data assimilation

11:00 – 11:30

Group picture and short hike before lunch

11:30 – 1:00

Lunch in the ML Café, on your own, cash only

1:00 – 2:30

Extremes and Analogues (Alexis Hannart)

  • 1:00-1:30: Prashant Sardeshmukh, CIRES: Towards a more physically based approach to extreme value analysis in the climate system
  • 1:30-2:00: Flavio Lehner, NCAR: Dissecting high and low temperature events with a dynamical adjustment technique based on constructed analogues
  • 2:00-2:30: Yoann Robin, LSCE, France: Distance between Butterflies

 

2:30 – 3:00

Break, coffee

3:00 – 4:00

Extremes and Analogues Cont. (Flavio Lehner)

  • 3:00-3:30: Raphael Huser, KAUST University, Saudi Arabia: Modeling jointly low, moderate and heavy rainfall intensities without a threshold selection
  • 3:30-4:00: Mari Tye, NCAR: Quantifying a credible range of future change from an ensemble of regional simulations

 

4:15

CU Bus pick up to Millennium

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

8:20

CU Bus pickup from Millennium

8:40 – 9:00

Arrival, continental breakfast

9:00 – 10:30

Time Series and Extremes (Raphael Huser)

  • 9:00-9:30: Debbie Dupuis, HEC, Montreal: Modeling the extremes of temperature time series
  • 9:30-10:00: Valérie Chavez, Lausanne University, Switzerland: High-frequency data modeling using Hawkes processes
  • 10:00-10:30: Juan Restrepo, Oregon State University: Defining a Trend of a Multi-Scale Time Series

10:30 – 11:00

Break, coffee

11:00 – 12:00

Extremes Drivers (Debbie Dupuis)

  • 11:00-11:30: Karen McKinnon, NCAR: Forced and unforced changes in the shape of summer temperature distributions 
  • 11:30-12:00: Ben Shaby, Pennsylvania State University: Latent Variable Models for Environmental Extremes

12:00 – 1:30

Lunch in the ML Café, on your own, cash only

1:30-2:30

Big Data (Ben Shaby)

  • 1:30-2:00: Scott Sisson, University of New South Wales, Australia: Symbolic data analysis for extremes
  • 2:00-2:30: Daniel McDonald, Indiana University: On the Nyström and Column-Sampling Methods for the Approximate Principal Components Analysis of Large Data Sets

2:30 – 3:00

Break, coffee

3:00 – 4:00

Dynamics and Extremes (Scott Sisson)

  • 3:00-3:30: Jonathan Jalbert, McGill University, Montréal: A spatio-temporal model for extreme precipitation simulated by a climate model; with an application for assessing changes in return levels over North America.
  • 3:30-4:00: Reik Donner, PIK, Germany: Event Coincidence Analysis for Quantifying Simultaneities in Sequences of Extremes Among Variables and Regions

 

 

4:15 – 7:00

Informal gathering at Under the Sun Eatery and Pizzeria
Philippe Naveau will lead a voluntary hike to Under the Sun, or participants will carpool to the restaurant.

7:00

CU Bus pickup from Under the Sun to Millennium

Thursday, April 28, 2016

 

7:50

CU Bus pickup from Millennium

8:10 – 8:30

Arrival, continental breakfast

8:30 – 9:30

Multivariate Extremes (part I) (Reik Donner)

  • 8:30-9:00: Jenny Wadsworth, Cambridge University, UK: Statistical modeling with multivariate generalized Pareto distributions
  • 9:00-9:30: Simone Padoan, Bocconi University, Milan: Modelling the extremal dependence with Bernstein polynomials

9:30 – 10:00

Break, coffee

10:00 – 11:00

Multivariate Extremes (part I) Cont. (Jenny Wadsworth)

  • 10:00-10:30 Brook T. Russell, Clemson University: Modeling the Spatial Behavior of the Meteorological Drivers of Extreme Ozone
  • 10:30-11:00: Linda Mhalla, Geneva University, Switzerland: Semi-parametric estimation of non-stationary Pickands dependence functions

11:00 – 11:30

Short hike before lunch

11:30 – 1:00

Lunch in the ML Café, on your own, cash only

1:00 – 2:00

NCAR Ensemble Extremes (Simone Padoan)

  • 1:00-1:30: Arthur Greene, Columbia University: Uncertainty in extreme-value distribution parameters for projected precipitation trends, as a function of ensemble size
  • 1:30-2:00: Claudia Tebaldi, NCAR: Record breaking temperatures in reality and in the NCAR model

 

2:00 – 2:30

Break, coffee

2:30 – 3:30

Multivariate Extremes (part II) (Claudia Tebaldi)

  • 2:30-3:00: Emeric Thibaud, Colorado State University: Bayesian inference for spatial extremes
  • 3:00-3:30: Yen-Ning Huang, North Carolina State University: A Complete Downscaler

 

3:45

CU Bus pickup to Millennium