Agenda

Monday, February 1, 2016

8:00

CU bus pickup from Millennium

8:25 – 8:50

Arrival, registration, coffee

8:50 – 9:00

Introduction and logistics

9:00 – 10:30

Michael Wehner 

  • 9:00-9:30: Nathan Gillet: DAMIP
  • 9:30-10:00: Peter Stott, update
  • 10:00-10:30: Francis Zwiers, update

10:30 – 11:00

Break, coffee

11:00 – 12:30

Nathan Gillett

  • 11:00-11:30: Ben Santer, update
  • 11:30-12:00: Debbie Polson: Island observations as proxies for precipitation sensitivity to temperature over oceans
  • 12:00-12:30: Flavio Lehner: The importance of ENSO phase during volcanic eruptions for detection and attribution

12:30 – 1:30

Lunch in the ML Café, on your own, cash only

1:30 – 3:00

Debbie Polson

  • 1:30-1:45: Hideo Shiogama: Probabilistic estimation of climate changes by large ensemble experiment
  • 1:45-2:00: Angeline Pendergrass: Does the rate of change of extreme precipitation intensity depend on the forcing?
  • 2:00-2:30: Sonia Seneviratne: Linking anthropogenic forcing with regional extremes in present and future
  • 2:30-3:00: Tom Knutson: How long could the current hiatus in global warming last?

3:00 – 3:30

Break, coffee

3:30 – 5:10

Francis Zwiers

  • 3:30-3:45: Xuebin Zhang, update
  • 3:45-4:00: Chris Forest, update
  • 4:00-4:10: Ying Sun, update
  • 4:10-5:10: Discussion: Major gaps that the community should coordinate to tackle in time for AR6

5:30

CU bus pickup to Millennium

 

 

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

8:15

CU bus pickup from Millennium

8:40 – 9:00

Arrival, coffee

9:00 – 10:30

Fredi Otto

  • 9:00-9:30: Daithi Stone: The C20C+ project
  • 9:30-10:00: Michael Wehner, update
  • 10:00-10:30: Reto Knutti, update

10:30 – 11:00

Break, coffee

11:00 – 12:30

Philippe Naveau, NCAR, Theme of the Year

  • 11:00-11:30: Karen McKinnon: Observed changes in daily temperature distributions and the probability of extremes over land
  • 11:30-12:00: Alexis Hannart: Data assimilation for event attribution
  • 12:00-12:30: Aurelien Ribes, update

12:30 – 1:30

Lunch in the ML Café, on your own, cash only

1:30 – 3:00

Claudia Tebaldi, NCAR, Theme of the Year

  • 1:30-2:00: Jun Yan: Extreme value modeling for detection and attribution of climate extremes
  • 2:00-2:30: Richard Smith: Bayesian Hierarchical Models for Extreme Event Attribution
  • 2:30-3:00: Philippe Naveau: How to revise return periods for record events in a climate Detection & Attribution contest

3:00 – 3:30

Break, group photo (no coffee service)

3:30 – 5:00

Myles Allen

  • 3:30-4:00: Fredi Otto: On the thermodynamics vs. dynamics event definition issue
  • 4:00-5:00: Discussion: Event attribution, uncertainty and framing question

5:00 – 7:15

Reception & poster session, ML Cafe

7:20

CU bus pickup to Millennium

 

 

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

8:15

CU bus pickup from Millennium

8:40 – 9:00

Arrival, coffee

9:00 – 10:30

Peter Stott

  • 9:00-9:30: Myles Allen & Dann Mitchel, update
  • 9:30-10:00: Geert Jan van Oldenborgh: Lessons learned from the WWA rapid attribution test cases
  • 10:00-10:30: David Karoly: Attribution of extreme events using the W@H ANZ system

10:30 – 11:00

Break, coffee

11:00 – 12:30

Xuebin Zhang

  • 11:00-11:30: Martin Hoerling: Some Lessons in Event Attribution
  • 11:30-12:30: Discussion: Operational event attribution

12:30 – 12:55

Boxed lunch pick-up (from MSR Lobby)

1:00

CU bus pickup to Millennium for workshop attendees