IDAG 2015 Agenda

Day 1 - January 21, 2015

Location: NCAR - Fleischmann Building

7:30 am

Bus departs Millennium Harvest Hotel to NCAR

8:00 - 9:00

Registration & Continental breakfast

9:00 - 9:10

Michael WehnerWelcome

9:10 - 9:30

Ben SanterObserved multi-variable signals of late 20th and early 21st Century volcanic activity

9:30 - 9:50

Tim Del SoleEstimating aerosol forced variability

9:50 - 10:10

Alexis HannartCounterfactual causal theory for D&A

10:10 - 10:30

Andrew SchurerUsing prior information to estimate the transient climate response from the historic record

10:30 - 11:00

Coffee break

11:00 - 11:20

Chris ForestOn using global teleconnection operators (GTOs) for attribution of climate events

11:20 - 11:40

Aurélien RibesDesigning D&A simulations for CMIP6

11:40 - 12:00pm

Ying Sun:  Attributing causes to observed warming in China

12:00 - 12:20

Reto Knutti: Climate sensitivity and transient response: recent results and open issues

12:20 - 1:40

Lunch in the Mesa Laboratory Cafeteria (on your own)

1:40 - 2:00

Paul KushnerEstimating the anthropogenic sea surface temperature response using pattern scaling

2:00 - 2:20

Laurent TerrayA method to derive dynamically-adjusted trends

2:20 - 2:40

Alex LibardoniUpdating estimates of climate response characteristics using revised model diagnostics

2:40 - 3:00

Jerry Meehl: Internal variability and externally forced response in the "Big Hiatus" (1945-1975)

3:00 - 3:20

Judith PerlwitzArctic Tropospheric Warming: Causes and linkages to lower latitudes

3:20 - 4:00

Coffee Break

4:00 - 4:20

Seung-ki MinAttribution of Arctic Sea-ice melting patterns

4:20 - 4:40

Karl TaylorCMIP6

4:40 - 5:00

Nathan Gillett: The detection and attribution component of CMIP6: DAMIP (remote)

5:00 - 6:00

Discussion, including about future IDAG activities

6:15

Bus departs NCAR, returns to Millennium Harvest Hotel

 

Day 2 - January 22, 2015

Location: Fleischmann Building

7:30 am

Bus departs Millennium Harvest Hotel to NCAR

8:00 - 9:00

Continental Breakfast

9:00 - 9:20

Daithi Stone: Replacing IDAG with an algorithm

9:20 - 9:40

Sam Dean: Regional attribution studies for New Zealand extreme events

9:40 - 10:00

Nikos ChristidisRecent attribution studies of changes in extremes and extreme events

10:00 - 10:20

Chris Funk: US drought attribution associated with the West Pacific Warming Mode

10:20 - 10:50

Coffee Break

10:50 - 11:10

Friederike OttoThe weather @home approach to probabilistic event attribution

11:10 - 11:30

Linyin ChengExtreme Value Theory and the California Drought

11:30 - 11:50

Erich FischerAnthropogenic contribution to the global occurrence of hot and heavy precipitation extremes

11:50 - 12:25pm

Xuebin Zhang: Discussion of IDAG and the WCRP Grand Challenge

12:25 - 2:00

Lunch in the Mesa Laboratory Cafeteria (on your own)

2:00 - 2:20

Tom KnutsonAssessing extreme events for anthropogenic influence: recent examples or investigation of the global warming hiatus

2:20 - 2:40

Francis Zwiers: Detection and Attribution of northern high-latitude climate change

2:40 - 3:00

Pardeep Pall: An attribution study of the 2013 Boulder floods

3:00 - 3:20

Yukiko ImadaEvent attribution and downscaling

3:20 - 3:50

Coffee Break

3:50 - 4:10

Sonia SeneviratneIntegrating land use forcing and land feedbacks in extreme events attribution

4:10 - 4:30

Peter Stott: EUCLEIA status report

4:30 - 4:50

Marty Hoerling: NOAA/ESRL update

4:50 - 5:10

Michael WehnerBerkeley update

5:10 - 6:00

Discussion

6:15

Bus departs NCAR, returns to Millennium Harvest Hotel

 

Day 3 - January 23

Location: NCAR - Main Seminar Room

7:30am

Bus departs Millennium Harvest Hotel to NCAR

8:00 - 9:00

Continental Breakfast

9:00 - 9:10

Gabi Hegerl: Introduction of real-time attribution session

9:10 - 9:30

Heidi CullenWorld weather attribution overview

9:30 - 9:50

David Karoly:Attribution of daily record temperatures in Australia in 2013

9:50 - 10:15

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh: Empirical event attribution and results from (sub)daily precipitation extremes (remote)

10:15 - 10:40

Karsten HausteinProof of concept: Real-time attribution using the example of the UK winter flood (2013/14)

10:40 - 11:05

Maarten van Aalst and Erin Coughlan: The last mile: from attribution science to policy, practice and public understanding

11:05 - 11:30

Open Discussion

11:30

IDAG Meeting ends - Closed SOC Session begins (Damon Room)

11:30 - 12:30pm

Lunch in the Damon Room

12:45

Bus departs NCAR, returns to Millennium Harvest Hotel

12:30 - 1:30

(Damon Room) SOC Discussion - Next steps

1:45

End - Millennium van departs NCAR, returns to hotel