Beyond P-Values Course: The Statistics of Extremes

March 28-30, 2016 at NCAR

This three-day school is geared towards climate and environmental scientists and hydrologists who would like to learn about the statistical analysis of extreme events. Please see the agenda for details on the content.

The open source R statistical software and its packages tailored to extremes will be used on simple examples.

This course is organized by Philippe Naveau. The instructors are Eric Gilleland, Rick Katz, Dan Cooley (CSU), and Emeric Thibaud (CSU). Doug Nychka, Dorit Hammeriling, and other experts in statistics will provide additional support during the hands-on R sessions.

Topics

Introduction to Univariate Extreme Value Theory in climate sciences

Introduction to Multivariate Extreme Value Theory in climate sceinces

Special Topics: Detection and Attribution for Extremes

Applications

Space is limited in this course, please complete an application by March 1, 2016 to be considered. You will be notified by March 4, 2016 if your application has been acccepted. Please contact Dorit Hammeriling at dorith@ucar.edu with questions.

Monday, March 28, 2016, NCAR Fleischmann Building (FB)

INTRODUCTION TO UNIVARIATE EXTREME VALUE THEORY (EVT) IN CLIMATE SCIENCES

 

 9:00  – 10:15 

 EVT Tutorial #1, "Block Maxima Approach" [Rick] (three pdf files)

 10:15  – 10:45 

 Break

 10:45  – 12:00 

 Software Tutorial and Exercises #1 [Eric]

 12:00  – 1:00 

 Lunch

 1:00  – 2:15 

 EVT Tutorial #2, "Peaks over Threshold Approach" [Rick]

 2:15  – 2:45 

 Break

 2:45  – 4:00 

 Software Tutorial and Exercises #2 [Eric]

 

 

Tuesday, March 29, 2016, NCAR FB

 

 9:00  – 10:15 

 EVT Tutorial #3, "Issues Arising in Climate Applications" [Rick]

 10:15  – 10:45 

 Break

 10:45 a – 12:00 

 Software Tutorial and Exercises #3 [Eric]

 12:00  – 1:00 

 Lunch

 1:00 – 2:15 

 Multivariate extremes introduction [Dan] (lecture files)

 2:45  – 4:00 

 Tutorial  [Dan will provide examples to work on, Dan, Emeric & others assist students]

 

Wednesday, March 30, 2016, NCAR FB

 

 9:00  – 10:15 

 Spatial extremes introduction. [Emeric]

 10:15  – 10:45 

 Break

 10:45  – 12:00 

 Tutorial [Emeric provides examples, Emeric, Dan and others assist students]

 12:00  –  1:00 

 Lunch

 1:00  – 2:15 

 Introduction to Detection and Attribution for extremes [Philippe]

 2:15  –  2:45 

 Break

 2:45  – 4:00 

 Software tutorial for Detection and Attribution for extremes [Philippe]

 

Please select a teachers name below to open the course materials related to their session. Thank you.

Rick Katz

Emeric Thibaud

Dan Cooley

Philippe Naveau

Eric Gilleland