Hazardous convective weather risk: Big and small data problems

Mike Tippett, Coulmbia University

Hazardous convective weather (HCW) events associated with severe thunderstorms include tornadoes, hail and damaging winds. Although relatively rare, these events cause substantial property damage and loss of life. The central U.S. is particularly prone to tornadoes, but severe thunderstorms occur in many regions worldwide. Quantification of HCW risk is important both in the short term (forecasters warning the public of imminent peril) and longer term (insurers assessing exposure to hazards). A changing climate complicates estimates of both current and future HCW risk. In this talk I will describe some problems in modeling HCW risk, statistical approaches that combine data and physical understanding, and directions for future work.

Link to Recording: http://video.ucar.edu/mms/image/CI2015_michael_tippett.mp4