Brown Bag Seminar- A Markov Chain Method to calculate the dynamic properties of compound extreme events

02/10/2015 - 12:00pm

A Markov Chain Method to calculate the dynamic properties of compound extreme events

Katrin Sedlmeier, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany

Compound extreme events are receiving more and more attention in the scientific world because of their great impact on society. It is therefore of great interest how well state-of-the-art regional climate models can represent the dynamical behavior of multivariate extremes and how their occurrence will change in the near future.
I will present a method based on Markov Chains to assess these two questions. It is based on the representation of multivariate climate anomalies by first order Markov Chains and the calculation of descriptors such as persistence, recurrence time and entropy which characterize the internal dynamic properties of the multivariate system.
The work is based on an ensemble of high resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations for Central Europe with the COSMO-CLM regional climate model.
Katrin is a third year PhD student at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany in the meteorology department. Her PhD is about the generation of an ensemble of regional climate simulations with the COSMO-CLM model and the assessment of extreme and compound extreme events.

Tuesday February 10, 2015
Time: Noon
Location: Mesa Laboratory, Chapman Room