Ionospheric Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecasting

03/09/2015 - 12:00pm

Ionospheric Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecasting

Alex Chartier, Johns Hopkins University

Earth's ionosphere presents a threat to human activities such as satellite positioning and timing, radio communications and surveillance. Nowcasts and forecasts of the ionosphere could help mitigate these damaging effects. Recent advances in the field of ionospheric imaging and new storm-time ionospheric forecasting techniques are presented here. The approach combines Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements with an ensemble of coupled thermosphere-ionosphere models to produce short-term forecasts during a storm. A review of ionospheric physics will also be given. The relationship between data assimilation and forecasting is explored with reference to the physics of the thermosphere-ionosphere system. An important conclusion of this work is that thermospheric composition can be inferred from measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC). Future directions, including the inference of Solar and geomagnetic drivers and coupling with lower-atmospheric models will be discussed.

Date: Monday March 9th, 2015

Time:12:00PM

Mesa Laboratory, Damon Room