IMAGe Brown Bag Seminar - Comparison of methods for updating intensity-duration-frequency curves using regional climate data at multiple spatial and temporal resolutions

07/06/2017 - 12:00pm to 1:00pm
ML - Chapman Room

Comparison of methods for updating intensity-duration-frequency curves using regional climate data at multiple spatial and temporal resolutions

Lauren Cook

Carnegie Mellon University

Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are a common input to engineering design, and are used to represent extreme rainfall in region. As rainfall patterns shift into a non-stationary regime as a result of climate change, these curves will need to be updated with future projections of extreme precipitation. Many regions have begun to update these curves to reflect the trends from downscaled climate models; however, few studies have compared the methods for doing so, as well as the uncertainty that results from the selection of the climate model, and its native grid scale and temporal resolution. This study will examine the variability in updated IDF curves for three locations (Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Phoenix) when the method for creation of future IDF curves is altered, as well as the underlying resolution (spatial, temporal) of the climate ensemble. Additional analysis will compare results using two emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), climate model data sources (e.g., NA-CORDEX and NARCCAP), and downscaling techniques (dynamical v. statistical). Metrics for comparison include the resulting intensity of precipitation, as well as the effort expended to create the IDF curve. Finally, the resulting intensities will be used to design a stormwater retention basin using the TR-55 method (24-hour duration) and 50-year return period, in order to determine how the basin size is altered as the methods, models, and native resolutions change.

Thursday, July 6th, 2017

12:00pm – 1:00pm

Mesa Lab, Chapman Room

(Bring your lunch)