IMAGe Brown Bag - An Application of Max-Stable Processes to Modelling Extreme Daily Rainfall in Australia

07/29/2016 - 12:00pm to 1:00pm

An Application of Max-Stable Processes to Modelling Extreme Daily Rainfall in Australia

Kate Saunders
The University of Melbourne

In Australia, we know the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to be a large scale climate driver that affects mean and total rainfall. While we know that ENSO also affects Australian rainfall extremes, we have not yet quantified the size of this effect. In this research, we fit a max-stable process to the daily annual maxima rainfall observed at stations in South East Queensland, Australia. The annual maxima were taken over the non-calendar year July to June to avoid splitting the Australian wet season in two. To include the effect of ENSO in our model, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was included as a temporal covariate. The preferred model included SOI as a temporal covariate in both location and scale parameters. The result demonstrates that the marginal distributions are both shifted and scaled conditional on the SOI, and therefore the exceedance level associated with a given tail probability is also conditional on the SOI.

Friday, July 29, 2016
12:00 pm – 1:00 pm
Mesa Lab, Room 680, Tower B
(ML, Penthouse)