IMAGe Brown Bag- Modeling Extreme Low Temperatures in Northern Finland

12/04/2015 - 12:00pm to 1:00pm
Mesa Lab- Damon Room

Emeric Thibaud, Colorado State University

Friday, December 4, 2015
12:00-1:00 pm
Mesa Lab, Damon Room
(Bring your lunch)

In northern regions of Finland, extreme low winter temperatures play a central role in ecological sustainability by limiting the extent of outbreaks of forest pests. This is the case for the autumnal moth, whose larvae have caused serious forest damage by defoliating mountain birch. Forests have been mostly protected from this pest by extreme low temperatures, since its eggs cannot survive below -36°C. One of the most striking consequences of global change is likely increases in temperatures, especially for Arctic regions, and this might affect the ecology of these regions. Motivated by this problem we developed a spatial model for extreme low temperatures in northern Finland. Our model is consistent with extreme value theory and properly accounts for asymptotic dependence in an efficient way. I will discuss the results of our study, its limitations and potential extensions.